Rebook
4 creatorsEven on cautious numbers, a paying user cost less than 49,99 US$.
Book them again on similar terms.
- @cramclub 8,53 US$ each
- @medschool.min 12,62 US$ each
- @lofi.lectures 11,57 US$ each
- @studywithlena 14,60 US$ each
Rebook 4 creators. Pause 8 creators.
Give 13 more creators another test before deciding. Posts brought an estimated 191 paying users (likely 167 to 215) for 8.665 US$ of spend: 45,32 US$ each, against a break-even of 49,99 US$, the revenue a paying user has brought so far.
191
paying users found from posts
Likely 167 to 215
4
creators worth rebooking
Out of 25 creators
4.848 US$
of budget freed by pausing 8 creators
Even on hopeful numbers, they cost more than 49,99 US$ per paying user.
Your creators at a glance Simulated sample
Each dot is a creator. Further out means more paying users per 1,000 views; a bigger dot means more views. Grey dots with a red ring had mostly low-quality views.
- Rebook
- Test again
- Mostly low-quality views
Point at a dot to see its numbers. Select it to jump to that creator.
- Cost per paying user
- 45,32 US$
- Likely 40,37 US$ to 51,73 US$
Break-even: 49,99 US$ - Extra installs from posts
- 1.888
- Likely 1.654 to 2.119
0,31 installs per 1,000 views - Revenue so far from posts
- 9.558 US$
- Likely 8.373 US$ to 10.729 US$
1,57 US$ per 1,000 views · 1,1× the spend - Spend
- 8.665 US$
- Across 221 posts and 6,1 mio. views
25 creators
Decisions
What to do with each creator
Each creator's cost per paying user, compared with 49,99 US$. The whole likely range decides, not just its middle.
Test again
13 creatorsThe likely range straddles 49,99 US$.
Book one more round at a similar payout, then run the audit again.
- @readwithrio 17,40 US$ each
- @ib.revision 25,80 US$ each
- @flashcard.fern 12,41 US$ each
Show 10 more creatorsShow fewer
- @examseason 18,05 US$ each
- @sciencesnips 16,60 US$ each
- @quietdesk 64,43 US$ each
- @mathsmadesimple 103 US$ each
- @studytok.sam 76,42 US$ each
- @deskdiaries 37,51 US$ each
- @brainbreaks 16,87 US$ or more each
- @acadaily 11,94 US$ or more each
- @focusframes 18,68 US$ or more each
- @lecturehacks 11,27 US$ or more each
Pause
8 creatorsEven on hopeful numbers, a paying user cost more than 49,99 US$.
Stop new bookings for now.
- @gradgrind 201 US$ each
Low-quality views on 100 % of posts
- @revisionroom 581 US$ each
Low-quality views on 100 % of posts
- @pomodoro.pia 697 US$ each
Low-quality views on 100 % of posts
Show 5 more creatorsShow fewer
- @essaymode 458 US$ each
Low-quality views on 100 % of posts
- @notes.by.kai 80,18 US$ or more each
Low-quality views on 100 % of posts
- @campus.cuts 238 US$ or more each
Low-quality views on 100 % of posts
- @thestudypod 214 US$ or more each
Low-quality views on 100 % of posts
- @unilifeclips 162 US$ or more each
Low-quality views on 100 % of posts
Evidence
The campaign, day by day
Grey bars are the installs you got each day. The line is what the model expects without the posts; the green area is the lift it credits to them.
- Installs per day
- Expected without posts
- Estimated lift from posts
- Posts went live
About 59 a day before the first post and 160 a day while posts were going live. The posts explain about 54 % of the installs in that period.
Details
Every creator
Sorted by estimated paying users. Code-confirmed counts are exact but incomplete: most viewers never type a code. Revenue so far is what their paying users have paid to date, after refunds; return on spend is that revenue divided by their payout.
| Creator | Decision | Paying users | Cost per paying user | Revenue so far | Revenue per 1,000 views | Return on spend | Spend | Posts | Views | Extra installs | Code-confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @cramclub | Rebook | 42,131,0 to 46,0 | 8,53 US$7,80 US$ to 11,60 US$ | 2.104 US$1.548 US$ to 2.302 US$ | 8,79 US$6,46 US$ to 9,61 US$ | 5,9×4,3× to 6,4× | 359 US$ | 7 | 239.490 | 416306 to 455 | 12 |
| @medschool.min | Rebook | 36,026,3 to 39,0 | 12,62 US$11,65 US$ to 17,28 US$ | 1.800 US$1.315 US$ to 1.951 US$ | 4,91 US$3,59 US$ to 5,32 US$ | 4,0×2,9× to 4,3× | 455 US$ | 6 | 366.754 | 356260 to 385 | 14 |
| @readwithrio | Test again | 14,64,4 to 22,0 | 17,40 US$11,55 US$ to 58,30 US$ | 729 US$218 US$ to 1.099 US$ | 4,31 US$1,29 US$ to 6,49 US$ | 2,9×0,9× to 4,3× | 254 US$ | 14 | 169.230 | 14443 to 217 | 5 |
| @ib.revision | Test again | 14,27,2 to 18,5 | 25,80 US$19,83 US$ to 50,76 US$ | 709 US$361 US$ to 923 US$ | 2,91 US$1,48 US$ to 3,78 US$ | 1,9×1,0× to 2,5× | 366 US$ | 9 | 244.038 | 14071 to 182 | 1 |
| @lofi.lectures | Rebook | 13,75,7 to 19,5 | 11,57 US$8,13 US$ to 28,03 US$ | 684 US$283 US$ to 975 US$ | 6,48 US$2,68 US$ to 9,23 US$ | 4,3×1,8× to 6,2× | 158 US$ | 7 | 105.640 | 13556 to 193 | 8 |
| @studywithlena | Rebook | 13,07,4 to 16,3 | 14,60 US$11,63 US$ to 25,50 US$ | 649 US$372 US$ to 815 US$ | 5,14 US$2,94 US$ to 6,45 US$ | 3,4×2,0× to 4,3× | 190 US$ | 7 | 126.438 | 12873 to 161 | 4 |
| @flashcard.fern | Test again | 12,83,0 to 20,0 | 12,41 US$7,95 US$ to 53,71 US$ | 642 US$148 US$ to 1.002 US$ | 6,04 US$1,40 US$ to 9,43 US$ | 4,0×0,9× to 6,3× | 159 US$ | 12 | 106.196 | 12729 to 198 | 2 |
| @examseason | Test again | 11,13,8 to 16,3 | 18,05 US$12,33 US$ to 52,79 US$ | 557 US$190 US$ to 815 US$ | 4,15 US$1,42 US$ to 6,08 US$ | 2,8×0,9× to 4,1× | 201 US$ | 9 | 134.082 | 11038 to 161 | 5 |
| @sciencesnips | Test again | 11,02,6 to 16,4 | 16,60 US$11,11 US$ to 71,30 US$ | 548 US$128 US$ to 819 US$ | 4,52 US$1,05 US$ to 6,75 US$ | 3,0×0,7× to 4,5× | 182 US$ | 10 | 121.316 | 10825 to 162 | 4 |
| @quietdesk | Test again | 5,40,0 to 16,1 | 64,43 US$21,74 US$ or more | 271 US$0,00 US$ to 804 US$ | 1,16 US$0,00 US$ to 3,45 US$ | 0,8×0,0× to 2,3× | 350 US$ | 16 | 233.235 | 540 to 159 | 3 |
| @mathsmadesimple | Test again | 4,20,0 to 11,0 | 103 US$39,53 US$ or more | 212 US$0,00 US$ to 551 US$ | 0,73 US$0,00 US$ to 1,90 US$ | 0,5×0,0× to 1,3× | 435 US$ | 13 | 290.201 | 420 to 109 | 1 |
| @studytok.sam | Test again | 3,70,0 to 12,6 | 76,42 US$22,50 US$ or more | 185 US$0,00 US$ to 629 US$ | 0,98 US$0,00 US$ to 3,33 US$ | 0,7×0,0× to 2,2× | 283 US$ | 11 | 188.822 | 370 to 124 | 1 |
| @gradgrind100 % of posts look like low-quality views | Pause | 2,90,0 to 5,5 | 201 US$107 US$ or more | 147 US$0,00 US$ to 277 US$ | 0,24 US$0,00 US$ to 0,45 US$ | 0,2×0,0× to 0,5× | 592 US$ | 6 | 618.871 | 290 to 55 | 0 |
| @deskdiaries | Test again | 2,00,0 to 7,0 | 37,51 US$10,54 US$ or more | 97,93 US$0,00 US$ to 349 US$ | 2,00 US$0,00 US$ to 7,12 US$ | 1,3×0,0× to 4,7× | 73,49 US$ | 6 | 48.988 | 190 to 69 | 1 |
| @revisionroom100 % of posts look like low-quality views | Pause | 1,80,0 to 5,5 | 581 US$191 US$ or more | 90,71 US$0,00 US$ to 276 US$ | 0,13 US$0,00 US$ to 0,39 US$ | 0,1×0,0× to 0,3× | 1.054 US$ | 11 | 710.207 | 180 to 55 | 0 |
| @pomodoro.pia100 % of posts look like low-quality views | Pause | 1,20,0 to 5,8 | 697 US$140 US$ or more | 57,83 US$0,00 US$ to 288 US$ | 0,11 US$0,00 US$ to 0,54 US$ | 0,1×0,0× to 0,4× | 806 US$ | 8 | 537.208 | 110 to 57 | 0 |
| @essaymode100 % of posts look like low-quality views | Pause | 1,00,0 to 4,9 | 458 US$90,60 US$ or more | 48,03 US$0,00 US$ to 243 US$ | 0,16 US$0,00 US$ to 0,83 US$ | 0,1×0,0× to 0,6× | 440 US$ | 7 | 293.341 | 90 to 48 | 0 |
| @notes.by.kai100 % of posts look like low-quality views | Pause | 0,20,0 to 2,1 | 80,18 US$ or more | 11,87 US$0,00 US$ to 105 US$ | 0,11 US$0,00 US$ to 0,94 US$ | 0,1×0,0× to 0,6× | 169 US$ | 3 | 112.741 | 20 to 21 | 0 |
| @brainbreaks | Test again | 0,20,0 to 8,7 | 16,87 US$ or more | 11,77 US$0,00 US$ to 435 US$ | 0,12 US$0,00 US$ to 4,44 US$ | 0,1×0,0× to 3,0× | 147 US$ | 8 | 97.823 | 20 to 86 | 1 |
| @acadaily | Test again | 0,00,0 to 6,9 | 11,94 US$ or more | 0,00 US$0,00 US$ to 344 US$ | 0,00 US$0,00 US$ to 6,28 US$ | 0,0×0,0× to 4,2× | 82,17 US$ | 14 | 54.781 | 00 to 68 | 1 |
| @campus.cuts100 % of posts look like low-quality views | Pause | 0,00,0 to 2,8 | 238 US$ or more | 0,00 US$0,00 US$ to 141 US$ | 0,00 US$0,00 US$ to 0,31 US$ | 0,0×0,0× to 0,2× | 671 US$ | 12 | 447.418 | 00 to 28 | 0 |
| @focusframes | Test again | 0,00,0 to 4,3 | 18,68 US$ or more | 0,00 US$0,00 US$ to 215 US$ | 0,00 US$0,00 US$ to 4,01 US$ | 0,0×0,0× to 2,7× | 80,52 US$ | 4 | 53.679 | 00 to 43 | 1 |
| @lecturehacks | Test again | 0,00,0 to 3,7 | 11,27 US$ or more | 0,00 US$0,00 US$ to 186 US$ | 0,00 US$0,00 US$ to 6,65 US$ | 0,0×0,0× to 4,4× | 41,91 US$ | 6 | 27.942 | 00 to 37 | 0 |
| @thestudypod100 % of posts look like low-quality views | Pause | 0,00,0 to 3,5 | 214 US$ or more | 0,00 US$0,00 US$ to 177 US$ | 0,00 US$0,00 US$ to 0,35 US$ | 0,0×0,0× to 0,2× | 761 US$ | 10 | 507.041 | 00 to 35 | 0 |
| @unilifeclips100 % of posts look like low-quality views | Pause | 0,00,0 to 2,2 | 162 US$ or more | 0,00 US$0,00 US$ to 110 US$ | 0,00 US$0,00 US$ to 0,46 US$ | 0,0×0,0× to 0,3× | 356 US$ | 5 | 237.299 | 00 to 22 | 0 |
Top posts
The 15 posts with the most estimated installs. Single posts are rarely measurable on their own: “With creator” means the creator's estimate shared out by each post's views.
| Post | Creator | Posted (UTC) | Views | Spend | Extra installs | Measured | View quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| clip0183 | @medschool.min | 21. aug. 21.00 | 263.699Tracked over time | 300 US$ | 255,7186,7 to 277,0 | On its own | No problems found |
| clip0048 | @cramclub | 24. aug. 15.00 | 115.419Tracked over time | 173 US$ | 200,4147,4 to 219,2 | On its own | No problems found |
| clip0045 | @cramclub | 1. sep. 12.00 | 67.877Tracked over time | 102 US$ | 117,886,7 to 128,9 | On its own | No problems found |
| clip0006 | @studywithlena | 17. aug. 11.00 | 68.186Tracked over time | 102 US$ | 69,239,6 to 86,8 | On its own | No problems found |
| clip0184 | @medschool.min | 30. aug. 02.00 | 68.154Tracked over time | 102 US$ | 66,148,3 to 71,6 | On its own | No problems found |
| clip0043 | @cramclub | 15. aug. 04.00 | 35.927Tracked over time | 53,89 US$ | 62,345,8 to 68,2 | On its own | No problems found |
| clip0179 | @ib.revision | 31. aug. 11.00 | 90.048Tracked over time | 135 US$ | 51,726,3 to 67,3 | On its own | No problems found |
| clip0174 | @ib.revision | 23. aug. 13.00 | 83.764Tracked over time | 126 US$ | 48,124,5 to 62,6 | With creator | No problems found |
| clip0038 | @lofi.lectures | 27. aug. 17.00 | 32.209Tracked over time | 48,31 US$ | 41,217,0 to 58,7 | With creator | No problems found |
| clip0066 | @flashcard.fern | 27. aug. 08.00 | 31.670Tracked over time | 47,51 US$ | 37,88,7 to 58,9 | With creator | No problems found |
| clip0036 | @lofi.lectures | 22. aug. 17.00 | 28.166Tracked over time | 42,25 US$ | 36,114,9 to 51,3 | With creator | No problems found |
| clip0007 | @studywithlena | 20. aug. 12.00 | 34.899Tracked over time | 52,35 US$ | 35,420,3 to 44,4 | With creator | No problems found |
| clip0110 | @readwithrio | 24. aug. 18.00 | 40.766Tracked over time | 61,15 US$ | 34,610,3 to 52,2 | With creator | No problems found |
| clip0012 | @examseason | 25. aug. 07.00 | 41.254Tracked over time | 61,88 US$ | 33,811,6 to 49,5 | With creator | No problems found |
| clip0198 | @sciencesnips | 23. aug. 18.00 | 37.679Tracked over time | 56,52 US$ | 33,67,8 to 50,2 | With creator | No problems found |
Results by market
Extra conversions in each country during the campaign, compared with the weeks before it. Small markets borrow strength from similar ones, so their numbers don't jump around with every sign-up. Counts are installs.
49 % of the extra conversions came from USA.
All markets: 1.921 extra installs (likely 1.793 to 2.040).
No pooled data yet for USA, Storbritannien, Tyskland, Indien, Canada, Brasilien og Australien; using your own data and the global model.
Ranges show where the true number most likely is; each is designed to contain it about 80 times in 100.
By country
| Market | Before, per day | During, per day | Extra | Share of the lift | Became paying | Based on |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USAUnited States | 28,8 | 74,7 | 945859 to 1.030 | 49 %46 % to 52 % | 10,2 % | Your dataNo pooled data yet |
| StorbritannienUK & Ireland | 5,7 | 17,5 | 251220 to 281 | 13 %11 % to 15 % | 11,4 % | Your dataNo pooled data yet |
| TysklandGermany, Austria & Switzerland | 4,0 | 13,5 | 202177 to 227 | 11 %9 % to 12 % | 8,2 % | Your dataNo pooled data yet |
| IndienIndia | 7,6 | 16,3 | 170134 to 203 | 9 %7 % to 10 % | 9,9 % | Your dataNo pooled data yet |
| Canada | 4,1 | 11,2 | 146122 to 170 | 8 %6 % to 9 % | 9,0 % | Your dataNo pooled data yet |
| BrasilienBrazil | 4,2 | 10,1 | 12196 to 144 | 6 %5 % to 7 % | 11,4 % | Your dataNo pooled data yet |
| AustralienAustralia, New Zealand & Pacific | 4,3 | 8,6 | 8560 to 106 | 4 %3 % to 5 % | 10,1 % | Your dataNo pooled data yet |
By market group and region
By region
| Market | Before, per day | During, per day | Extra | Share of the lift | Became paying | Based on |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 32,9 | 86,0 | 1.0911.001 to 1.180 | 57 %54 % to 59 % | 10,0 % | Your dataNo pooled data yet |
| Europe | 9,7 | 31,1 | 453412 to 493 | 24 %22 % to 26 % | 10,0 % | Your dataNo pooled data yet |
| Asia-Pacific | 11,9 | 24,9 | 255210 to 295 | 13 %11 % to 15 % | 10,0 % | Your dataNo pooled data yet |
| Latin America & Caribbean | 4,2 | 10,1 | 12196 to 144 | 6 %5 % to 7 % | 11,4 % | Your dataNo pooled data yet |
Data
Notes on the data
62 posts have views that look low quality (see the post table). Their creators' estimates already reflect it.
Sales without posts follow your customers' local time and public holidays in USA, Indien, Storbritannien, Australien, Brasilien, Canada og Tyskland.
Accuracy check against the simulation's truth
This report was produced from simulated data with known answers. The true number of post-driven installs was 1.947; the estimate was 1.888 (likely 1.654 to 2.119). 92 % of creator ranges contain the true value (the target is about 80 %).
Method
How these numbers were made
Method, ranges and decision rules
These numbers come from statistical models WhichPost built and trained in-house, fitted to Studybuddy AI (simulated)'s own data.
Every hour's installs are split into what the product would have had anyway and what each creator's new views added.
Paying users are installs multiplied by 10,1 %. Share of installs that paid within 30 days (users old enough to have had the chance). Revenue per paying user so far: 49,99 US$.
Revenue so far is what paying users have paid up to 12. sep. 2026, after refunds. The 383 customers who started paying since the first post have paid about 49,99 US$ each so far (likely 49,99 US$ to 49,99 US$); a creator's revenue is their paying users times that, so it assumes their customers pay like other new customers. Revenue per 1,000 views and return on spend divide it by their views and payout.
Ranges are 80 % ranges, designed to contain the true value about 80 times in 100. Individual posts are rarely measurable on their own; post numbers marked “With creator” are the creator's estimate shared out by each post's views.
Decisions: rebook when even the cautious cost per paying user beats the target; pause when even the hopeful one misses it; test again when the range straddles it. No target was set, so the target is break-even: the revenue a paying user has brought so far (49,99 US$).